Oxford Floods - The boring but oh so interesting engineering side of things

So as I'm sure some of you know I have a job that involves modelling water in various forms. When I was a consultant I used to build storm water models, so I would consider that I know a little bit about hydraulics and flow and all things nice. I now work for a company that develops, sells, and supports such modelling software, perhaps the best in the business. When I joined here I moved into the prettier, easier, world of clean water modelling (It's easier as it's all pressurised flow with no open channels!)

We also sell flood forecasting software, so with the recent and continuing flooding in the Severn and Thames there has been much discussion about the flood 'forecasting' that has taken place over the last few days. I'd like to point out that the EA don't use our software for forecasting, perhaps a mistake they may fix in the future. A few other places do use our software and it has proved to accurately predict flood levels +- 5cm, and times, in rivers with volumes much larger then rivers in the UK. So anyway...

In Oxford we were told that the 'forecasted' peak would hit Oxford on Sunday night, then it was Monday morning, then it was Tuesday night. Here we are on Wednesday with the levels still rising and more homes flooded. The water levels in our stream rose more in 12hrs yesterday then in the last 48hrs total. The water in now up to the bridge arches and coming out of the drain in the road. Perhaps I will go home tonight and have to wade to my front door who knows, and certainly the EA can't predict it. Believe me, I know how hard river modelling is, I have done a tiny bit, but surely it's best not to predict a peak, or at least be vague about it rather then say it will come, and then it doesn't. No doubt people here are used to these predictions, maybe they treat them like weather forecasts, unlikely to be right.

I will add some more photos of the flooding around work, yes the lovely listed manor house I work in is also in a flood plane, and also some more photos from around Oxford after my evening walk tonight.